A friend has challenged me to follow some Congress races and give my thoughts. Here’s a start. I’ll publish more as things develop.
<<Romney is a Republican. And if Romney is stopped, it’ll be because another Republican won the nomination in Utah. It’ll be a fascinating state to watch — but it won’t tip the partisan balance of the Senate.>>
Lol, no. Romney gave us four more years of Obama. Then he torched what remained of his reputation by lecturing voters on how stupid they are for voting Trump. Even Mormon McMullin couldn’t keep the state from voting Trumpenreich.
<<If a blue wave is building ahead of this year’s midterm elections, it will crash [in Arizona and Nevada] first. The two states are the prime pickup opportunities for Democrats on 2018’s map, and their recipe for winning the Senate includes victories in those two races plus holding all of their own seats.>>
Arizona is one of the most conservative states in the country. And the Democrats can’t possibly hold all their own seats. They are wishing upon stars.
<<But Arizona is moving to the left — it and Georgia are turning blue as rapidly as Ohio and Iowa are becoming red — and Democrats landed their top target in Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.>>
Yeah tell that to Georgia District 6. And didn’t they claim Georgia would surely go Hillary?
Georgia and Arizona are moving a little towards the left becuase of the mass of Mexicans, but the actual citizens lean very conservative. Trump is going to crack down on voter fraud in 2018.
<<McCaskill is one of five Democratic senators up for re-election in a state[Missouri] Trump won by double digits in 2016.>>
Yeah they’re fucked. Missouri under a Democrat president watched negro unrest burn Ferguson and collapse enrollment at the university after a long wait to be admitted into the SEC. And CNN says this will be an expensive and brutal race.
<<None of the three Republicans running this cycle [in Indiana] — Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita and state Rep. Mike Braun — is as talented, or baggage-free, as Young. (In particular, Messer faces residency questions, and people who work for Rokita have accused him of creating a toxic environment.)
<<Donnelly has kept a low profile and isn’t particularly well-defined, but the “Mexico Joe” label that followed an Associated Press report that he profited from a family business’s move to outsource jobs to Mexico still stings.>>
That sounds like a lot of baggage for Young, especially since that’s a core issue of the last election. The boys in Indiana will be voting for Pence’s party.
Cruz thought he had Indiana becuase it’s Midwestern, but Indiana is a weird place. Kind of an outcast southern state. Trump cleaned it in the primaries.
<<Manchin’s [WV] early flirtations with Trump — which included conversations about a Cabinet post — may help insulate him in a state the President carried with 69% of the vote in 2016.>>
Manchin had a real shot a year ago despite being in a state where every county voted Trump, but the Democrat leaders recently took him to the woodshed. Since then he has voted against the tax bill and said Al Franken shouldn’t resign. Maybe Hillary threatened him with a “suicide”. When poor West Virginians see their tax return, they’ll give him the axe.
Kind of sad. Even I sort of liked Manchin. He defied Obama’s ridiculous meeting a year ago. The Democrat Party is dying because they are entirely ruled by the values of Manhattan, a mystical place entirely different from anywhere in the world.
<<In a neutral political environment, the math suggests this seat would be an easy pickup for the GOP: Trump won North Dakota by an eye-popping 36 points in 2016, and Heitkamp [D] won her seat by less than 1 point in 2012.
<<But this year’s crop of Democratic incumbents features several candidates — Heitkamp, Manchin and Montana’s Jon Tester stand out — with strong individual brands at home that have allowed them to defy their state’s partisan makeup.>>
Less than one point is not a strong individual brand. And the Democratic Party today is very different than in 2012. How is CNN able to say one thing in one paragraph and contradict it in the next and just assume the sensationalism will work?
<<Like Missouri, the question here is whether Ohio’s rightward trend will prevail in 2018, or this race will instead swing with what appears to be a favorable national environment for Democrats. As of right now, the 2017 results in Virginia, New Jersey and Alabama suggest the latter. Brown will need that to be the case.>>
Favorable national environment? Is that a joke? The Democratic Party is even more unpopular than Trump. At least Trump has diehard supporters. Even the core socialist millennials know how corrupt the DNC is.
Alabama was a fluke. Jones won’t win reelection. He got lucky. Watch the Democrats assume it had more meaning than it did and double down.
<<Republicans missed on their top recruiting targets [in Montana]. And now, state auditor Matt Rosendale and businessman Troy Downing are headed toward what could be an expensive and nasty primary.
<<That’s all good news for Tester, whose populist, down-to-earth brand — bolstered by the fact that he still runs a farm — allowed him to win in 2006 and 2012 despite Montana’s history of voting for Republican presidential nominees (Trump won by 21 points here).>>
Wow, 2006 was a long time ago. The Democrats actually had moderates back then.
Populism and “down to earth” have been smeared to mean fascist, and any Democrat senator like Manchin that tries to hold it is given a death threat. And Montana is a farming state, so why is it surprising that the Democrat senator isn’t a soy latte liberal?
This article was written by someone who can’t place Montana on a map and doesn’t have a tree within five blocks of his high rise.
Trump won by 21 points becuase the Democrats have gotten so insane. They no longer tolerate any big tent compromise. Montana won’t vote for an anti-Trump candidate.
<<Democrats got their dream recruit in former Gov. Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, where they hope to pick off retiring Sen. Bob Corker’s seat. But is Bredesen still the force he was 15 years ago, or is he this cycle’s Evan Bayh?>>
Bill Clinton was able to flip Tennessee, but that was a long time ago. Tennessee won’t possibly vote Democrat. I’m in one of the more liberal areas, and it’s just not going to happen. Only three counties voted Hillary. There’s just no way.